January 14, 2026
Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems (ENDS) remain under intense regulatory scrutiny by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Centre for Tobacco Products (CTP). Among the most critical scientific pillars of a Premarket Tobacco Product Application (PMTA) is the assessment of genotoxicity and carcinogenicity, particularly in relation to long-term cancer risk.
In 2024, the FDA released two pivotal internal memoranda that provide unprecedented insight into how regulators expect manufacturers to evaluate, categorize, and quantify carcinogenic risk arising from ENDS ingredients, leachable, and aerosol constituents.
These memoranda clearly demonstrate that traditional in vitro testing alone is no longer sufficient. Instead, FDA endorses a component-based, tiered Weight-of-Evidence (WoE) approach, combined with Excess Lifetime Cancer Risk (ELCR) calculations.
This blog by Maven Regulatory Solutions provides a detailed, practical interpretation of FDA expectations and what ENDS manufacturers must do to align their PMTA submissions with current regulatory thinking.
Limitations of Traditional Genotoxicity Testing for ENDS
Many ENDS manufacturers routinely conduct standard in vitro genotoxicity assays, including:
- Bacterial reverse mutation (Ames) tests
- Mammalian chromosomal aberration assays
- Micronucleus assays
While the FDA acknowledges the scientific value of these tests particularly when positive results are observed it has emphasized key limitations when applied to complex mixtures such as e-liquids and aerosols:
FDA-Identified Limitations
- Results cannot support relative genotoxicity comparisons
- Results cannot be used for quantitative cancer risk assessment
- Whole-mixture testing does not identify individual chemical drivers of risk
As a result, FDA has moved decisively toward a chemical-by-chemical risk assessment framework.
FDA’s Component-Based Weight-of-Evidence (WoE) Framework
The FDA memorandum outlines a tiered classification system for each chemical constituent in an ENDS product. This approach integrates:
- In vitro genotoxicity data
- In vivo carcinogenicity studies
- Human epidemiological evidence (where available)
- IARC and U.S. EPA classifications
- Computational toxicology ((Q)SAR)
- New Approach Methodologies (NAMs)
Carcinogenic Risk Classification – Tiered Framework
|
Tier |
Carcinogenic Risk Classification |
Description / Regulatory Alignment |
|
Tier 1 |
Known human carcinogen |
Sufficient evidence of carcinogenicity in humans; aligned with IARC Group 1 and US EPA Group A |
|
Tier 2 |
Likely carcinogenic to humans |
Limited human evidence and sufficient animal evidence; aligned with IARC Group 2A and US EPA Groups B1–B2 |
|
Tier 3 |
Suggestive evidence of carcinogenic potential |
Limited or inadequate animal data with mechanistic relevance; aligned with IARC Group 2B and US EPA Group C |
|
Tier 4 |
Potential carcinogenic hazard |
Data indicates possible carcinogenic concern; further evaluation required using a weight-of-evidence approach |
|
Tier 4A |
In vivo genotoxicity or carcinogenicity |
Positive findings in vivo genotoxicity or long-term carcinogenicity studies |
|
Tier 4B |
Positive Ames mutagenicity |
Demonstrated bacterial mutagenicity (Ames test) suggesting DNA-reactive potential |
|
Tier 4C |
Positive non-Ames in vitro genotoxicity |
Positive results in vitro mammalian cell assays (e.g., micronucleus, chromosomal aberration) |
|
Tier 4D |
Positive in silico or read-across alerts |
Structural alerts or positive outcomes from (Q)SAR models, computational toxicology, or analog read-across |
|
Tier 4E |
Insufficient carcinogenicity data |
Lack of adequate experimental or computational data to conclude carcinogenic potential |
|
Tier 5 |
Unlikely carcinogenic risk |
Adequate negative evidence from well-conducted in vivo and/or in vitro studies; low concern for carcinogenicity |
Beyond Ames: FDA’s Expectations for Non-Ames Endpoints
Although bacterial mutagenicity remains widely discussed, FDA’s memo clarifies that non-Ames endpoints are equally important, especially when data gaps exist.
Computational & Experimental Endpoints Encouraged by FDA
- Chromosomal aberrations
- Micronucleus formation
- Mouse lymphoma mutation assays
- Rodent carcinogenicity
- In silico carcinogenicity prediction models
If a chemical is adequately assessed across all relevant endpoints and shows no concern, it may be classified as Tier 5. Otherwise, Tier 4 classification is expected.
FDA ELCR Framework: Translating Hazard into Quantified Risk
Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC)
In its second 2024 memorandum, FDA confirms that a TTC of 1.5 µg/day is appropriate for ENDS cancer risk assessment. This TTC corresponds to a risk level of:
1 additional cancer case per 100,000 lifetime users
Key Regulatory Implications
- Constituents below TTC require no further cancer risk evaluation
- Constituents above TTC must be included in ELCR calculations
Cancer Potency Metrics Used by FDA
For Tier 1–4 chemicals exceeding the TTC, FDA expects use of:
|
Metric |
Description |
|
Inhalation Unit Risk (IUR) |
EPA-derived lifetime cancer risk per µg/m³ |
|
TD50 values |
Tumorigenic dose from animal studies |
|
TTC fallback |
Used when potency data are unavailable |
ELCR Calculation Formula
ELCR = Estimated Daily Exposure ÷ Cancer Potency Value
Once calculated for all relevant chemicals, FDA expects a cumulative ELCR (ELCRc) to be derived by summing individual risks.
Why FDA’s Approach Matters for PMTA Strategy
Although conservative, this framework allows:
- Transparent comparisons across ENDS products
- Benchmarking against combustible tobacco products
- Consistent regulatory decision-making
FDA’s publication of multiple toxicology memoranda confirms a clear regulatory priority:
Cancer risk assessment is central to PMTA authorization decisions
Looking Ahead: Expanding FDA Toxicology Expectations
FDA has indicated that additional guidance is in development, likely addressing:
- Respiratory toxicity
- Cardiovascular risk
- Computational toxicology
- Systems toxicology and NAMs
Manufacturers that proactively align now will be far better positioned for regulatory success.
How Maven Regulatory Solutions Supports ENDS & PMTA Programs
Maven Regulatory Solutions provides specialist FDA-focused toxicology and regulatory support, including:
- ENDS ingredient toxicological assessments
- Genotoxicity & carcinogenicity WoE frameworks
- ELCR modelling and documentation
- PMTA toxicology module preparation
- FDA engagement and regulatory intelligence
Our experts translate complex FDA expectations into clear, defensible submissions.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Is Ames testing alone sufficient for PMTA submissions?
No. FDA considers it informative but insufficient for cancer risk assessment.
Are in silico tools acceptable to FDA?
Yes, when used appropriately as part of a WoE approach.
What happens if a chemical exceeds TTC?
It must be included in ELCR calculations.
Does Tier 4 mean automatic rejection?
No, but it triggers quantitative risk assessment requirements.
Conclusion: Building Defensible PMTAs in a Risk-Focused FDA Landscape
FDA’s ENDS memoranda clearly signal a shift toward data-integrated, conservative, and transparent cancer risk assessment. Companies that rely on outdated testing paradigms risk delays or denial of PMTA authorization.
By embracing FDA’s tiered WoE and ELCR frameworks early, manufacturers can reduce regulatory uncertainty, strengthen scientific credibility, and accelerate approval pathways.
Maven Regulatory Solutions stands ready to support you at every step.
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